Probability and statistics

Saw this in a TV show last night.

Imagine you are a in a TV game show. You are given a chance to choose from three cards of which 2 have picture of a goat on them and one has a picture of a car. Now if you choose the card with the picture of a car then you win that car. If not you win a …goat!

You choose a card. Now what is the chance that you have chosen a car-card? One in three! Let’s open any one of the two cards that you have not chosen. And suppose it turns out to be a goat. Yay! So now what are the chances you have of having chosen the car-card? Fifty-fifty!Okay, now if given a chance would you switch your choice?  No. 

Apparently if you change your choice you increase your chances of winning.

I was able to follow until the NO. But he lost me when he said that we actually increase the chance of picking the car-card when we switch our choice. I don’t know.

Let me try one more time.
Three cards: A    B   C [Now for the sake of clarity know that A is the car card.]
I choose card B. My chances of the car is 1/3
Now open card C. It’s a goat. So my chance of the car is 50-50. 
Will you change your choice from B to A?
No. So my chance of car is still at 50-50?
Um…no! When you change your choice from B to A your chances are 2/3.

But its probability and you still have the 0.33 chance of not winning even if you change!

On further research…

MONTY HALL - The problem is a paradox of the veridical the type, because the correct result (you should switch doors) is at first sight ludicrous, but is nevertheless demonstrably true. It is mathematically closely related to the earlier Three Prisoners problem, and both problems bear some similarity to the much older Bertrand's box paradox.

The most well known statement of the problem is:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

And the understandable solution is 

Yes; you should switch. The first door has a 1/3 chance of winning, but the second door has a 2/3 chance. Here’s a good way to visualize what happened. Suppose there are a million doors, and you pick door #1. Then the host, who knows what’s behind the doors and will always avoid the one with the prize, opens them all except door #777,777. You’d switch to that door pretty fast, wouldn’t you?

Wisdom on a Tuesday afternoon

On a day when you are so swamped with work and had not a moment to surface for air, to look back upon this day, and, remember that there was a day when you had to write this to stay awake.

When I felt like the Stonehenges

Its #BackToSchool time…could not be more terrified. 
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It’s nice to step out of the house knowing the day means something. 
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The season of juggling thus begins. But M has settled well in her playcare /school, and I have arranged to get pictures and notes emailed to me regularly, so little less worried on her side of the matter. All that’s there is homework and work. And luckily the home has been home for the past few years so nothings new there. So that leaves just work… of which I have no clue.

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The first few days in ant job are exciting as it is boring. It’s exciting, of course, because of new place… new people… new role… new responsibilities. And also rather dull, I mean, people all around you move with a sense of purpose and camaraderie and you sit around waiting for the clue to what to do. All I know right now is to get there on time.

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Love the fact that things are timed and scheduled….that basically means things get done…instead of being postponed or procrastinated.

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Missing all my daytime programming… Now I have to really plan my minutes to be able to catch up on my celebrity news and scandals and more importantly my freedom to sleep at will during the day.

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Having a hard time understanding ‘Don’t split your infinitives’. 
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Just realized each of my assignments has at least one new element to it. The place, the type, the work… each one is different than the rest. Good in a way, but not particularly for someone who thrives on routine. Wonder then, why I’m making these choices. Not really choices though, are they? It’s more like chance!

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Kind of nervous about whom I’m going to meet, what kind of relationship it is going to be etc….. Good-nervous! And right now I’m very nostalgic about all the men who made my days a little easier in each place and all the women who ended up becoming friends for life. Wonder if they are thinking of me at this moment….so strong the nostalgia.

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I have to leave the house at 7.15 if I have to make it to the appointment to sign-in at 8 am, which I did. But due to some miscommunication the person to sign me in came only at 9. So basically I did nothing between 7.30 and 9.00 am on a Monday morning, thus avoiding the raghu-kaalam unplanned. If that’s not a good start… well it is a good start!

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The funny thing about this placement is that although I’m new I’m not a new face. I come in knowing more than a few people to say ‘Hi’ to and go to lunch with and take breaks with. But they know me as someone else. Phew… to make them know me as me is going to take extra effort.

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The first thing I did on the first day I got assigned is to personalize my desktop. And what picture did I choose? The Stonehenge…the one that comes default with Windows machines. And, why? Because I felt that depicts what I feel at the moment. You want to know? Okie! People look at the stones and wonder what’s the purpose of the arrangement and are they worthy of it all. And then the stones, knowing what they know, wishes they would just let them be.

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Right now I’m being the clichéd lump-of-clay types, in more than one aspect. Watch me shine and bloom! 
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Finally seem to be having Sunshine days in a row. It may be for the fact that I have a lot on my mind and the hours are tightly scheduled. But…. But I have already started planning ahead for those days when this gig will be up and the opportune life-moment to end it. How bi-polar can it get? And oh, remind me to tell about the dream about the bug and the rope-and-light thing!

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I just realized today that I may not be as private as I thought I was with my thoughts….well at least not all of them. 

Your body is your canvas

Come summer...it's all bikinis and beaches.... and the quintessential tattoo parade.

Nowadays everyone I see has at least one body art. Some people have just one or two (visible ones) and there are some who have clearly very little clear skin left. I struggle to understand the fascination with tattoos. Yes, I see that its a form of self expression and that sort of thing. But aren't there many other painless ways to self-express... like the, ahem, blog or Facebook or Twitter or whatever-the-new-hell. But why on your body? You ask questions like this and that's how you get stamped (no pun) old-fashioned.

Although tempting, and most time interesting, the idea of getting a tattoo for life is quiet scary. And there are few things that actually holds me back from getting inked.

1. Pain. The first thing when I look at some elaborate tattoos on people's body, I cringe at the thought of the pain they might have had to undergo for that. And I wonder is that really worth it. I mean if there is a way to cure something with a pill why take an injection. 
2. Decision. What propels people to pick a particular design and color and spot. Not considering the ones chosen during a drunken stupor and ruling out the misspelt ones....even if its like a butterfly on the ankle or Sistine chapel on the chest and back, how did they end up picking the particular design? Its not like an outfit or a haircut which has some chance of redemption after a faux-paux!
3. Body changes. You put on weight or drastically reduce weight you end up with stretch marks, if you are not too careful. Now what happens to tattooed skin? Its one thing to deal with wrinkles in your skin as you age and quiet another to have to live with a wrinkled tattoo. 
4. Mind changes. What if one morning you wake up and get repelled by the tattoos... I mean, after all mind is a fickle monkey or some such thing. And what if you end up regretting the design or the meaning behind which you got the tattoo. Yes, there are removal procedures. But for some people removing those extensive tattoos would be like getting a new skin. 
5. Out of vogue. Once, getting 'pachhai' (literally green.. an old fashioned, tribal Indian, branding-iron-mark sort of thing) was very famous in India, or, at least in my grandma's village. I have seen lot of great-grandmothers with green ink. The designs were really conservative and was mainly something spiritual or God-related stuff. Occasionally there were some romantics who got their sweethearts names written painfully across their hearts or arms (in case of women... you know those were times when women were modest enough). But anyways it went out of fashion and were generally frowned upon in the years to come. That generation advised its younger ones against getting the ink. What if in the years to come this new-fangled trend also meets the same fate. We can already see, read, sense that the days are not far from today where teenagers will be advised against inking their bodies. The meaning of clean-cut "neat and smart in appearance and well-bred " would then include "without any body piercing or ink". But again, like anything else advised against, there will come days when people took to streets to protest for the right to get inked and they will pass a bill in the parliament for or against it ,and the world, or parts of it that cares, will wait with bated breath for the verdict that would change.... pretty much nothing. Freedom of expression and some such.
6. Side-effects. What about side effects of getting inked extensively. I mean can an IV be inserted on a vein that's tattooed? Can the body be XRay-ed or MRI-ed? I mean, yes, this can be Googled, but I don't know I just wonder.

All that said, after spending three summers around tattoos and tattooed sights I have come up with a list of tattoos I might want to get if ever I decide to get some ink. Its good to be prepared isn't it.

Aaidha ezhuthu If at all I get one, this would be it. Its a simple design, less painful as it could get. Just three dots. This has lots of significance and meaning to me. Personally, right now in my life, I see the three dots as - the first dot on top is 'How I see myself'; The dot on the bottom left is 'How the world sees me'; The dot on the bottom left is 'How I see the world'. And, based on my mood they change places. Alternatively, it could mean my family, with the top dot my daughter and the bottom two are her parents. Now writing about it has sparked my interest to know more about the origin of the letter.
One other reason this design seems so tempting is that, this also showcases at some level, a connection to my roots... my mother tongue.
I probably would get this design on my neck...a little down and below my left ear-ring drop, I guess, maybe.

Shiva's stamp This is Leo's mark from The Beach movie. He had it marked on his left arm using an iron rod and had it rubbed on it with ash - the traditionally old-age Indian style. I think the left arm is as good a place for this design if not the forehead. :)

TOTEM This is a totem from Inception movie. Its one of those things that is enigmatic at one level and seems almost silly and foolish, if you think too much about it. My understanding or rather the significance of the totem to me is that you can believe what you want, be it a dream or reality and you can work towards making it a reality. That's my take on it today! I would get this design on my where....? Right wrist would be good? Or little above the wrist somewhere in the middle of the right forearm little below elbow?

YOLO Zac-Effron has this tattoo in his right side-palm. The design is perfect but the spot isn't easily visible which takes away the significance of what the acronym conveys. I would get it across my right index finger (on the side facing the thumb) where I can see it every day.

That's all I have for now folks.... more designs to follow when I become more crazy.

Three favourite thing in one....

What else to ask for in a song! Great lyrics.... no problem there... Bharathiyar!! Excellent voice....Karthick.. who else?

And ok, ok... the melancholy.... makes it three :)

Caught in a web I so lovingly created...

I believe there is a fundamental thing in every one's life that they diligently work to achieve.

WISDOM is considered, and widely accepted, to be the greatest principle in the world. "Wisdom is the principal thing; therefore get wisdom: and with all thy getting get understanding", says the Bible. But in day-to-day life we see there are more classified, broken down bits, of that ultimate wisdom, that people try to acquire....like happiness, wealth, health, peace etc. 

Those with higher degrees of awareness know what that special thing is, that they are going towards. And there are those who without so much realization as to why they are gravitating onto certain aspects of life, go about doing the same thing. All things we do, is in part or in whole, a process with which we believe to reach that essential gratification. Although, once that is gained there is not saying that some other wish might be in the path for the eternal nirvana ... but moving on....

And then there is this timeline. I will do this by the time I finish my college...I will be there by the time I have kids.... I will have a relationship by the time I turn 30 .. I 'd love to have done all that and this before I die and some such.

So its safe to assume that all that we do every single day is... we are all working towards gaining one thing or the other, or so it would seem. Otherwise the Sun rising would be pointless. Anyways.... so we choose a path and walk in it.

AND what if there comes a point, where, one's certain that the path they had chosen to traverse in is not 'working out'? Normally we try to tweak it a little bit and try to trudge on. Or some of us weaklings adjust the goal to a more achievable one, that we are most certain to get to, one that we convince ourselves is the best we possibly could. The proverbial, 'Try for the moon... You could land in the star' or something to that effect. 

Does that mean we are failures?Is contentment of what we are and who we are enough? Or it a lazy-ass excuse for skipping on personal improvement? Is switching  to a new obsession a better use of time?  What if it was tied to someone else? Does acting impervious means that we don't really care or affect? Would it complicate matters if there is someone else who would decide the success of the whole thing?

Or is the answer to all these silliness is the ultimate WISDOM they were talking about?